COVID-19: impactos na mortalidade e expectativa de vida no Brasil em 2020 e 2021

Abstract

Since the end of the year 2019, the world has faced a new threat: a virus from the coronavirus family has spread quickly and is characterized as a global health problem. On August 3, 2021, in the world there were already 199,142,755 cases and 4,240,279 deaths caused by COVID-19. Due to lack of preparation, several countries had a slow pace in facing the pandemic, generating social and economic consequences for society. The high number of deaths impacts the population's age structure and, consequently, life expectancy. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic in the age structure of the Brazilian population in 2020, in addition to observing the behavior of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 after the start of vaccination in 2021 for that population. The development of this study took place through the application of the multiple decrements model to estimate life expectancy at birth in a scenario prior to the pandemic (2019) and in a scenario with COVID-19 (year 2020). The data contains information on the number of deaths from COVID-19 and from all causes in addition to the population by age and sex. The results of this study involve changes in the life expectancy of Brazilians after the COVID pandemic and a new behavior in the curve of new cases and deaths from COVID-19 after the start of vaccination.