Application of the Gamma Fragility Model in the analysis of smoking cessation in Brazil in 2019

Abstract

It is globally recognized that tobacco consumption is a risk factor for various diseases, making its reduction a fundamental concern for public health. In Brazil, although there is a
wealth of literature on smoking and cessation, these studies often limit themselves to experimental research. This study aims to analyze data from the 2019 National Health Survey, with the
goal of presenting Survival Analysis as an alternative approach for investigating the behavior of
smokers until they quit the habit. The considered variables include gender, income, marital status, and health conditions such as Stroke, hypertension, lung disease, physical exercise practice,
and alcohol consumption. The Cox-Gompertz parametric model was applied to analyze factors
influenciando a duração do tabagismo, assumindo tempos de consumo de tabaco independentes e riscos proporcionais. Além disso, o modelo univariado de fragilidade Gama-Gompertz foi utilizado para abordar
fatores não observados que afetam a heterogeneidade dos dados. As análises revelaram maior probabilidade de
cessação do tabagismo entre mulheres e indivíduos que praticam exercício físico. O
modelo de fragilidade indicou a presença de fatores não observados influenciando o tempo de tabagismo, pois 0,17
da variabilidade dos dados não foi explicada pelas variáveis ​​consideradas.