Development and adjustment of the free energy market in Brazil

Abstract

The Free Market of Energy in Brazil was a government strategy by enacting laws from 1990 onwards, compensating for the lack of public investment in the country's energy matrix. Companies that meet the regulatory prerequisites become consumers and / or generators of electricity, meeting the needs of consumers through the signing of bilateral contracts The study aimed to analyze the evolution and predict the future price of electricity traded in the Free Energy Market in 4 regions of Brazil, through the history of the settlement price of differences (PLD) in the period from May 2003 to June 2015. We used the ANOVA, Wald-Wolfowitz and Kruskal-Wallis tests, and the models of ( HF), mean absolute deviation (MAPE) and mean squared error (MSD), and the root mean squared error (ADF), to verify the adequacy of the model fit, and (RMSE) to assess the quality of the forecasts. A variation in the mean PLD was identified, in some periods with an increasing trend, with no significant difference between the PLD, when compared to the four regions investigated (p-value = 0.94). Subsequently, there was a significant trend and seasonality (p <0.05) for the series of the four regions, considering the models that presented the lowest value for the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the four regions, since they were the ones that presented the lower values ​​for the prediction quality criteria. The forecast of the energy PLD contemplates that consumers and / or energy generators can carry out the programming of production costs.