Políticas Desenvolvimentistas no Brasil

o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento e a Nova Matriz Econômica em Perspectiva Comparada

Abstract

The article comparatively analyzes the economic policies of the governments of Ernesto Geisel (1974–1979), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003–2006; 2007–2010), and Dilma Rousseff (2011–2014; 2015–2016), taking as its central axis the relationship between external constraint, financing strategy, and the centrality of finance. The main question is to identify similarities and differences among these experiences. This is a qualitative study based on a literature review and secondary data from the Central Bank of Brazil, the Ministry of Finance (2010; 2011), and Ipea/Ipeadata. The analysis is organized around the responses to external shocks and the structural limits imposed by the financial system. The results indicate that, although operating in distinct contexts, the three governments sought to promote growth with state protagonism. Under the Geisel administration, the response to the first oil shock took the form of a financed structural adjustment, materialized in the II National Development Plan (II PND), supported by the recycling of petrodollars and external indebtedness. During the Lula I and II administrations, the macroeconomic tripod was maintained in combination with policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, favoring investment, consumption, and distributive improvement. Under the Dilma administration, the “New Economic Matrix” faced limits associated with the centrality of finance and the difficulty of structurally reducing the cost of money. It is concluded that the viability of developmentalism depends on international conditions and the domestic financing structure.