BRAZIL AT THE CENTER OF THE CHESSBOARD:

GEOPOLITICS, MULTIPOLARITY, AND THE LIMITS OF BRAZILIAN CENTRALITY DURING LULA’S THIRD GOVERNMENT

Abstract

This article analyzes Brazil's repositioning on the world geopolitical board during Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's third administration (2023-2026), guided by the hypothesis of a growing Brazilian centrality within multilateral forums, tensioned by structural and conjunctural contradictions. Drawing on bibliographic and documentary review, the study discusses the theoretical framework of political geography and critical geopolitics, highlighting Milton Santos's categories of space, used territory and multipolarity, articulated with the concept of active non-alignment. It then examines three instruments that projected the country as a relevant interlocutor — the G20 presidency (2023-2024), the BRICS presidency (2025) and the hosting of COP30 in Belém (2025) — followed by the limits of this centrality, expressed in the loss of protagonism in mediating the Ukraine war, diplomatic wear over Venezuela, and the tariffs imposed by the United States in 2025. It concludes that Brazil expanded its visibility and agenda-setting capacity within the international system, yet this centrality remains relative, dialectical and constrained by systemic, budgetary and ideological limits, not amounting to a consolidated position of power but rather a contested process.